Dry spell dilemma: Thai researchers sound the alarm over El Nino’s thirsty forecast

Thai researchers are presently elevating the alarm as they predict a possible drought disaster in the coming years, because of the El Nino climate pattern inflicting decrease than average rainfall. Consequently, proactive measures and comprehensive water management plans are urgently needed to mitigate the impression of the impending water scarcity.
Comprehensive discussing local weather change, water resource administration, and strategies for tackling future challenges was lately held by the Thailand Science Research and Innovation (TSRI). Researchers and officials from associated businesses attended the event to share their information on the difficulty.
A TSRI-sponsored analysis group shared their findings, forecasting a extremely doubtless interval of lowered rainfall lasting until 2028. Chalump Oonariya, a researcher from the Meteorological Department, defined that the results of El Nino are anticipated to persist for the following five years, causing a decrease in common rainfall. The south of Thailand is predicted to expertise severe drought in 2025, and by 2028 intensive drought circumstances will doubtless have an effect on larger areas.
However, a study is underway to look at the correlation between rainfall, streamflow, and soil moisture to find a way to devise drought preparation strategies to battle the ongoing Thai drought. Kanoksri Sarinnapakom, chief of the local weather and climate division at the Hydro-Informatics Institute, emphasised the importance of making ready for uncertainties due to El Nino’s lasting results, which is in a position to lead to decreased rainfall and increased drought likelihood.
Chaiyapong Thepprasit, head of the irrigation engineering division at Kasetsart University’s faculty of engineering, introduced an assessment of water-storage necessities for the 2023-2024 dry season. By finding out water flow into the Bhumibol Dam in Tak province and Sirikit Dam in Uttaradit province, it’s estimated that the Bhumibol Dam will hold roughly 7.98 billion cubic metres of water, or 44% above the typical quantity over the past 23 years, whereas the Sirikit Dam will hold three.21 billion cu/m, which is 46% lower than the typical amount over the previous 15 years.
Water provides
Although heavy rainfall is predicted between subsequent month and August, Thepprasit added that El Nino will unlikely cause important hurt this 12 months as there are currently sufficient water provides in the country. However, More of Thai drought may deteriorate if low rainfall continues for a chronic interval, reported Bangkok Post.
Thanet Somboon, director of the Bureau of Water Management and Hydrology underneath the Department of Royal Irrigation, acknowledged the challenges of water management through the season of Thai drought. Despite drought situations, some farmers proceed to plant rice on more than 2.2 million rai of land, requiring the department to release water from dams to assist them. Somboon confirmed that measures have been implemented to ensure adequate water supplies for both consumption and agriculture. Thanet said…
“Next 12 months, we expect round 9 billion cu/m of water to be used and consumed. We will ensure that there’s enough water for consumption and the preservation of the ecological system. We also plan to allocate 5 billion cu/m of water to the farming sector.”
The World Meteorological Organization recently reported that the chance of El Nino growing later this yr is increasing.
This event would create the other impact on weather and climate patterns in comparison with the long-lasting La Nina, triggering greater global temperatures and Thai drought circumstances..

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